It will take a sustained period of rainfall for smoke to make an exit: Start planning for that moment now
for the Siskiyou Hiker
by Gabriel Howe, Executive Director
06 SEPTEMBER 2021 | GOLD HILL, OR. — The smoke isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, at least that’s what we gathered from a conversation with National Weather Service Meteorologist Sven Neilaimischkies this morning. He started by pointing out that the “meteorological end to summer doesn’t really apply to our area. That’s more of a northeast type of thing.”
Our area doesn’t experience fall-like conditions until we get to the end of September or early October, he points out, but adds that the Roseburg area could get their first wetting rain as early as mid September, historically. He says that a quarter inch of rain is usually considered a wetting event. But that won’t do much for current conditions.
“The live fuel moisture is very, very low right now,” Neilaimischkies points out. “A quarter inch is just going to wet the top of the forest floor,” he says. “The fire behavior is going to jump right back up again.” Neilaimischkies says we need a prolonged “or successive rain events to really end those fires.” And right now he’s not seeing “anything that indicate a significant event that will really put the thumb down on the smoke production from these fires. We have a lot of fuels built up on our forests.”
Neilaimischkies describes a daily cycle where we get some clearing at night, then the smoke mixes back down. “That hasn’t made much of a difference lately, it’s just sitting here all the time.” The smoke isn’t mixing with clear air. It’s mixing with smoke “over the top of us. It’s the amount of smoke.”
Clearly, with all of California’s National Forests closed, and the rest of the Siskiyou socked in by smoke, now may not be the ideal time to explore the backwoods. But the rain will come, potentially around early October. The sky will clear and that blue will be bluer than ever. It might feel kind of like getting out of prison. So start planning for that moment now and chart out some fall trips.
Now is the time for old-fashioned
Clear off the coffee table, unfold an old-fashioned topographic map, and let your imagination do the work. Keep a laptop handy for research on closures and conditions, and start planning an adventure for as soon as the rain gifts us clean air.
Sky Lakes
The Sky Lakes Wilderness (116,000 acres) could end up being an ideal fall retreat. Kiss those mosquitoes goodbye and explore the Seven Lakes Basin, or hike the Wolf Loop which was just maintained by our 2021 Wilderness Corps.
Keep a close eye on the weather, as a fall storm could even bring blizzard type conditions and heavy snow, and wear bright colors for hunting season. We carry a Sky Lakes North and Sky Lakes South map on our website.
Kalmiopsis
Known for its diversity of spring wildflowers, don’t cut the Kalmiopsis short for fall forays.
The streams will be easy to cross, whereas spring flows can break a deal between you and a traverse of the Kalmiopsis Wilderness. Check out the most recent conditions (see tools below) to avoid the trails we haven’t worked in a couple of years, and shoot for those exposed areas that are just too hot in the summer months.
Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument
The way the autumn light showers the oak-chaparral and mountain prairies of Ashland, Oregon’s Casacde-Siskiyou National Monument is well worth the wait. Get the map here.
Can’t wait? Go coastal
From Sunset Bay to Harris Beach, the coast is a good bet, says Nelaimischkies. Summit Humbug Mountain, hike the trails at Cape Arago, or check out the Shrader Old Growth Trail near Gold Beach. Make reservations and have backup plans.
Trip planning tools
- Use forecasts straight from the National Weather Service. Read the discussion for deeper insight and further-out predictions.
- Check out our interactive map. It includes our latest updates on trail conditions from first-hand observations.
- Review our work log for detailed descriptions of where we’ve recently worked
- Use the USGS map locator to download high resolution quadrangle maps for free
- Use Siskiyou Mountain Club maps for planning and exploring in the Sky Lakes, Wild Rogue, Red Buttes, and Soda Mountain wilderness areas, as well as the Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument.
- Avoid crowd-sourced social platforms. The links with the most clicks don’t always lead to the best information.
